2012
FROM THE AMS POSTER JANUARY 2012
The below items are those in the poster presentation made at the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in January 2012. Outcomes are presented where I know them, but they include some places such as Mogadishu where followup is not easy.
APRIL-MAY: CHILLY AND STORMY IN CANADA AND US (1)
Yes
APRIL-MAY: DRY IN C EUROPE, S. E. EUROPE, WEST US, NORTH AND WEST CHINA, KOREAS (2) -
Mostly right - but need to see where the mistakes were
APRIL-MAY: RAIN IN THE MAGHREB, NORTHERN IRAN, TURKEY’S BLACK SEA COAST (3) -
Don't have data yet.
Hurricane Bud in Texas and Mexico, Beryl in S. Florida, not sure about the others
MAY 25: RAIN BEGINS IN PAKISTAN (5)
Yes, see this.
MAY 26 : RAIN BEGINS OMAN, YEMEN, DJIBOUTI, TO CONTINUE A WEEK OR SO (6)
Not clear. Some kind of rain in Yemen and Somalia around this time. Lesson learned: don't make forecasts for where there is no data to test it.
MAY 24-25: RAIN BEGINS IN JAPAN, KOREAS, SOUTHERN CHINA, TAIWAN, HAINAN, BURMA,
THEN FROM MAY 29 PHILIPPINES THEN INDOCHINA (7) -
Yes, Sanvu, Mawar. On the other hand, this is typhoon season. Lesson: avoid forecasts that are too much like climate.
MAY 27-29: RAIN IN BANGLADESH AND E INDIA (8)
JUNE 2: RAIN IN MOGADISHU (10) -
There has been heavy rain in Somalia during the spring, and that is all I can find out. lesson: Don't do forecasts where there is no data.
JUNE 2: RAIN IN CARIBBEAN, MEXICO FROM GUADALAJARA TO SOUTH, AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA (11) -
yes, Bud and Carlotta
OCT-NOV: CHILLY AND STORMY IN SOUTH HEM. (12)
NOV 10-17: FREAKY STORMS IN SOUTH HEM. (13)
No headlines like this. Once again, it was stupid to make a forecast where I can't find data about it.
NOV 15-17: CHILL IN PARAGUAY AND NEIGHBORS (14)
NOV 17 FF: RAIN IN AUSTRALIA, NZ, NEIGHBORS (15)
NOV 27: STORMS AIMING AT PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA, PNG, BRAZIL, C AMERICA (16)
NOV 25-DEC 7: QATAR – BANDS OF COOL AND RAIN (17)
Yes. This was not apparent in the re-analysis, which is worrying since I had planned to use the re-analysis for verification - but intermittent cold and rain were recorded on Twitter - a lot of English speaking people in Doha were very excited about rare cold and rain. Otherwise, I could not have found this.
POSSIBLE NOVEMBER HURRICANE N ATLANTIC (18)
ENSO MAX IN MAR-APRIL 2015 (STRONG EL NINO) (19)
ENSO MIN IN APRIL 2024 (STRONG LA NINA) (20)
ADDED AUGUST 2012
Rain on coast of Peru in mid-October, becoming heavier rain than usual in mid-November, then drier than usual in December.
Heavy rain in Mozambique also in mid-November, from Beira to Angoche.
Heavy rain in Fiji in mid-November.
Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in mid-November.
Heavy rain in Angola mid-November.
ADDED SPRING 2012
That Cuba and the Caymans should have a cold wave somewhere in May 25-27, and that there should be storms and mayhem in the Caribbean then.
Outcome: Cuba had flooding as expected - this from Granma: http://www.granma.cu/ingles/cuba-i/31may-Sancti-Spiritus.html - There was a huge rainstorm, reservoirs filled, people evacuated.
Cayman Islands is hard to follow up on. All I can find is a story about people rescuing dogs and cats caught in the inundated George Town animal shelter in heavy rain about then.
Contact: lucy@naturesverdict.net
